Agricultural History Review, Volume 60 Part 1 (2012), pp. 1–18

This paper investigates the impact of harvests and international markets on Swedish grain prices, 1665–1870. The paper finds that harvests at a national level had a greater impact on domestic grain prices than international grain prices. However, at a regional level, grain prices tended to be affected more by harvests outside the region. Furthermore, in the long term, foreign prices became a more important determinant of national grain prices. The conclusion is that, under certain circumstances, grain prices can be used as an indicator of harvest fluctuations and to construct historical national accounts, at least at a sufficiently aggregated level. However, such an endeavour needs to be combined with a careful analysis of the impact of prices in the surrounding area. 

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