Agricultural History Review, Volume 70 Part 2 (2022), pp. 169–192

This article explores the reasons why seasonal patterns in historical grain prices series often deviated from the expected pattern of low prices post-harvest and gradually rising prices until the next harvest. We analyse eighteenth-century Flemish and northern Italian grain prices to focus on the role of storage technologies, alternative seasonal patterns in supply and demand, and particularly quality variation. We argue that quality was not consistent throughout the harvest year because (1) grain quality improved in store and (2) grain producers selected different qualities for sale at different times of the year. Consequently, seasonal patterns in grain prices were affected by (1) the quality of stored grain gradually improving, (2) the balance of old and new grain available for sale and (3) the dumping in the market of poor-quality old grain, not ordinarily sold, when a new, successful harvest was in sight. These factors mattered, in addition to supply-and-demand effects that varied between cereals and regions, depending on storage technologies and buyers’ preferences. 

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